Posted by Tory Story on 1/31/2004, 7:52 am, in reply to "Re: Joke Pt. 1" Even the Harris government had its own version, with the "Family Values Caucus" working within the PC Party to ensure that social conservative issues were represented. In that instance, however, the vast Tory majority in the government's first term prevented the lobby from gaining much leverage, and it never emerged as a major force. Separation anxiety A vanguard faction of neo-conservative hard-liners would be a nightmare for any Premier to manage. But because of the threat Flaherty taking his supporters and forming a new party - a highly unlikely but not entirely implausible turn of events - the new Tory leader will be hesitant to take a harsh stance for fear of causing a complete split. That scenario has haunted the dreams of the Conservatives in the past. Particularly before the 1995 provincial election, when vote-splitting between Kim Campbell's Conservatives and Preston Manning's Reform Party had allowed the federal Liberals to win all but one of Ontario's seats, there was considerable fear over the potential creation of a provincial Reform wing that would have had a similar effect. That disaster was averted through a long series of negotiations supporters of Manning and Harris, in which the federal Reformers came to see enough of themselves in the provincial Tories to stymie the creation of a new party. Still, former Reform candidates and Kitchener businessman Reg Gosse began forming riding associations in 1994 in an attempt to jump-start a new right-wing party in Ontario, and managed to get three of them off the ground before Manning supporters stepped in. With a clear path on the populist right, Harris was able to consolidate the anti-establishment mood of the era, earn 45% of the vote and catapult himself into the Premier's office. But now, as the Tories look for a third consecutive mandate under a different leader, Flaherty could be capable of making the old nightmare come true. Only eight members of the legislature are required to form a political party in Ontario. So if Flaherty could convince seven of his nine caucus supporters that there was no place for them in a party led by Eves or Witmer, then a renegade caucus could effectively be produced. The new caucus would get a budget equal to that of the NDP, time in Question Period, and a likely place at the leaders' debate in the coming election. Allies in the Canadian Alliance, meanwhile, would provide ample membership for the formation of new riding associations and an organizational base for an election battle. If the faction crossed the floor, the result would be a minority government. The Tories would be absolutely dependent upon the support of the new party's members in order to pass any bill, and the opposition Liberals would be free to play the government off of its new rivals. All of this might sound somewhat far-fetched - but then, so too did the fate of the federal Conservatives in the early 1990s. Still, the Reform Party essentially split from the Progressive Conservatives, themselves a union of the earlier Progressive and Conservative Parties; later, the Democratic Representative Caucus split from the Canadian Alliance. And while it remains an unlikely scenario, the very possibility of its existence could easily grant Flaherty and his supporters unforeseen powers in an Eves (or Witmer) government. Mike Harris has often been touted as the only leader who could successfully bridge the divisions between all of the federal right-of-centre parties. But what may prove equally impressive with time is that he was able to hold together the Ontario PC Party in spite of its conflicting factions, without compromising his government's ability to function effectively For his successor, that might prove to be an insurmountable challenge. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- © Pundit Magazine 2001
North of the border, too, there is a long history of powerful factions within political parties. Robert Stanfield and Joe Clark both faced powerful and entrenched Diefenbaker loyalists who thwarted their attempts to move the federal PC Party to the centre, and Lester Pearson's Liberal government was rife with factions, divided between the "New Guard" and "Old Guard" and right and left wings.
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