Posted by Stanley Coupe on 6/23/2004, 4:16 am, in reply to "Loose Libs sink ships (PM PM's CSL)" Toronto Star OTTAWA — See-saw poll results in the campaign for the June 28 election suggest a minority government, even one where the Liberals take fewer seats than the Conservatives, but still retain power. Conventional wisdom holds that the party winning the most seats in the House of Commons forms the government. But, as with most conventional wisdom, there is a "but." If a party wins a clear majority, it forms a government. But if no party has a majority, the prime minister in office gets a chance to put together a government, even if another party holds more seats. Paul Martin has been coy about what he would do in such a situation, and did nothing to clarify matters today. When pressed, Martin grew testy and reminded everyone the votes haven’t been counted yet, so it’s premature to speculate about post-election scenarios. “If we work incredibly hard to earn the trust of Canadians and do everything we possibly can between now and the 28th, then hopefully the results will be as we want.” Minority governments where one party wins a plurality of seats, aren't rare. Joe Clark and the Tories were in a minority in 1979-80, Pierre Trudeau led one in 1972-74. There were three minorities in the 1960s (one Tory, two Liberal). In the words of Duncan McDowall, a historian from Carleton University, King-Byng is "a convoluted ball of constitutional wax," but it offers some insight into what could happen on June 28. In October 1925, the Liberals won 101 seats. The Conservatives took 116, and there were 28 Progressives, Labour and Independents. Liberal Prime Minister William Lyon Mackenzie King decided to meet the Commons and seek a vote of confidence. He won the support of the Progressives and soldiered on, despite being the second-place party. If the Liberals were to finish second on June 28, analysts say Prime Minister Paul Martin would have to be given a chance to govern. If he can form an informal alliance with another party, he could stay in power, as long as he could muster a majority in key votes, such as the budget or the speech from the throne. The tricky part comes if he loses such a vote. That happened to King in June of 1926. A bribery scandal led to a vote of censure in the Commons. Defeated, King asked Baron Byng of Vimy, the governor general of the day, to dissolve the House and call an election. Byng refused and King resigned with a bitter exchange of letters. Byng asked Conservative Leader Arthur Meighen to form a government. King said Byng's refusal to allow an election had provoked a "grave constitutional question without precedent in the history of Great Britain for a century, and in the history of Canada since Confederation." Byng replied: "My contention is that Mr. Meighen has not been given a chance of trying to govern, or saying that he cannot do so, and that all reasonable expedients should be tried before resorting to another election." As it was, Meighen was defeated in the Commons four days after taking office. In the subsequent election, in September 1926, King won a majority, ending the affair. While the Liberals under Martin could form a government, some analysts say that if that government quickly loses a confidence vote, Gov.-Gen. Adrienne Clarkson could ask Stephen Harper and the Tories to form a government, even if Martin wanted another election. "I don't think there is any doubt that she would feel obligated to turn to Mr. Harper," McDowall said. It's a sort of very Canadian convention, to "give the other fella his chance," he said. Her decision would turn on a number of factors, including seat distribution and how long it had been since the last election. Clarkson is likely reading up parliamentary history circa 1926.
Liberals lose — but still govern? Here's how
CANADIAN PRESS
“I think that depends on the circumstances,” he said on a campaign tour of British Columbia. “We’ve all seen permutations and combinations where these things have happened differently.”
But minorities where the governing party finishes second? Analysts have to go back almost 80 years to find the precedent, but it is there in the election of 1925 and the oddly rhyming King-Byng affair.
