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Posted by Kat Hak Sung on January 8, 2009, 9:16 pm, in reply to "556. Petro-dollar, the cause of Iran war (7/4/08)"
11. How can US dollar stands strong when oil price going down? (12/3/08)
The oil price now drops below $50/barrel. To my theory, the dollar should drop too. Because the buyers now have excessive petro-dollars. But dollar stands strong. What happens?
1. The speculators - which I think are controlled by intelligence, so they could influence central banks of western nations - are manipulating the exchange rate of Euro. When the oil price was at $145/barrel, the exchange rate of Euro/dollar was 1.6:1. When the oil price went to $110, the Euro rate became 1.36:1. When the oil price went to $90, it became 1.26:1. Euro devalued 20% against dollar followed the oil price dropping. It's abnormal. Because US suffers a sub-prime crisis. The downward oil price would release excess petro-dollar.Capital should escape from US. Dollar should be dumped and de-valued. But the unusual weak Euro prevented the capital escaping from dollar country. Dollar stands firm.
2. Driving the capital back into USA. Here is a typical report: "Speeding out, foreign capital net remittence output. From 9/1 to 9/5, the net remittence output of foreign capital reached 2.77 billion US dollars, compare with the net remittence output of 5 billion in whole month of August, the foreign investors having a tendency of accelerated leaving after they pour out the stock investment in Taiwan.market. "World Journal, 9/13/08)
Be noticed that the money back tendency started from August, the time when 8/8/08 planned Iran war went soured. The phenomenon was world wide. The stock market collapsed everywhere in Europe, South America and Asia. Singapore, Hongkong, South Korea, Japan.... they used to have a big foreign currency reserve, mainly dollar. The reserve unusual reduced these months. The money, goes back to the investor - the US.
Though the oil price drops 70%, US dollar seems not been affected. It stands strong. Because an unusual weak Euro, and a big retreat of US foreign investment that drove the dollar back into US. But the price is high - US suffers a financial tsunami. You may have noticed, the tsunami started in August too - the time when the planed Iran war went soured.
