Typhoon2000 Discussion Center: Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau

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Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau

Posted by T2K Board Administrator on January 20, 2006, 6:34 pm, in reply to "Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau"
Board Administrator

Hi Raf,
If it develops, it's not the earliest...you can check it out here:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.html
The area where this system might pass is somewhere between Bicol down to Southern Mindanao. The High pressure ridge over China is strong during January, unless a very strong Frontal System pull this system up. As of now, the steering current will track it West to WNW.
As for the climate, I can see a moderate La Niña, as what NOAA says. It's really hard to predict how intense this phenomenon will be. Let's just wait. As for the US, the Nat'l Hurricane Center still predicts an ACTIVE 2006, with again - series of major hurricanes affecting Fla and Gulf Coast. Here in the Philippines, there is a high chance of increasing number of Tropical Cyclones but less Super Typhoons. As you know, a La Niña Season means more Tropical Storms and less Super Typhoons and their formation is close to the Philippines or over the Philippine Sea and South China Sea. I cannot guarantee you the precise outcome of this phenomenon, but it may change. We'll see. Here's a nice article regarding the Tropical Cyclone Genesis during El Niña or La Niña:
http://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/Papers/camargo_sobel_jcl_2005.pdf

Message Thread:

convection to the east of Yap and Palau - raf January 19, 2006, 3:14 pm
- Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - T2K Board Administrator January 20, 2006, 7:51 am
  - Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - raf January 20, 2006, 9:16 am
    - Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - Rey January 20, 2006, 6:07 pm
    - Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - T2K Board Administrator January 20, 2006, 6:34 pm
      - Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - raf January 21, 2006, 8:56 am
        
        Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - T2K Board Administrator January 22, 2006, 8:39 am
        
        Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - raf January 24, 2006, 9:20 pm
        
        Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - T2K Board Administrator January 25, 2006, 7:50 am
      - Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - Rey January 21, 2006, 12:20 pm
        
        Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - T2K Board Administrator January 22, 2006, 8:08 am
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--Previous Message-- : Hi Raf, : : If it develops, it's not the earliest...you : can check it out here: : http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.html : : The area where this system might pass is : somewhere between Bicol down to Southern : Mindanao. The High pressure ridge over China : is strong during January, unless a very : strong Frontal System pull this system up. : As of now, the steering current will track : it West to WNW. : : As for the climate, I can see a moderate La : Niña, as what NOAA says. It's really hard to : predict how intense this phenomenon will be. : Let's just wait. As for the US, the Nat'l : Hurricane Center still predicts an ACTIVE : 2006, with again - series of major : hurricanes affecting Fla and Gulf Coast. : Here in the Philippines, there is a high : chance of increasing number of Tropical : Cyclones but less Super Typhoons. As you : know, a La Niña Season means more Tropical : Storms and less Super Typhoons and their : formation is close to the Philippines or : over the Philippine Sea and South China Sea. : I cannot guarantee you the precise outcome : of this phenomenon, but it may change. We'll : see. Here's a nice article regarding the : Tropical Cyclone Genesis during El Niña or : La Niña: : : http://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/Papers/camargo_sobel_jcl_2005.pdf : : : : :

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