Typhoon2000 Discussion Center: Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau

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Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau

Posted by raf on January 21, 2006, 8:56 am, in reply to "Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau"
203.215.92.59

Thanks again michael!
Oh i see. What you said clarified my speculations about this La Nina season and its forthcoming effects to our country. HOwever, I would like to ask you again some more things about this phenomenon. If ever more storms develop within the PAR or Philippine Area of Responsibility, how high is the chance of these systems making landfall in any part of our country? What specific locations/places will be in the path of these cyclones and what track or direction will they take in general? (i.e. if the storm develops just east of Yap, will it take a WNW track or still a NW path just like the path of significant typhoons in the path which spares the Philippines by making a curve to the northeast or north? Another would be if the storm develops over the South China Sea, will it take a northeast/eastnortheast track or continue to move west or north into parts of Vietnam or Hongkong, respectively?) And lastly, in what months will we expect an increase in the number of tropical cyclone formations?
Hope to hear from you soon michael!
Cheers!
--Previous Message--
: Hi Raf,
:
: If it develops, it's not the earliest...you
: can check it out here:
: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.html
:
: The area where this system might pass is
: somewhere between Bicol down to Southern
: Mindanao. The High pressure ridge over China
: is strong during January, unless a very
: strong Frontal System pull this system up.
: As of now, the steering current will track
: it West to WNW.
:
: As for the climate, I can see a moderate La
: Niña, as what NOAA says. It's really hard to
: predict how intense this phenomenon will be.
: Let's just wait. As for the US, the Nat'l
: Hurricane Center still predicts an ACTIVE
: 2006, with again - series of major
: hurricanes affecting Fla and Gulf Coast.
: Here in the Philippines, there is a high
: chance of increasing number of Tropical
: Cyclones but less Super Typhoons. As you
: know, a La Niña Season means more Tropical
: Storms and less Super Typhoons and their
: formation is close to the Philippines or
: over the Philippine Sea and South China Sea.
: I cannot guarantee you the precise outcome
: of this phenomenon, but it may change. We'll
: see. Here's a nice article regarding the
: Tropical Cyclone Genesis during El Niña or
: La Niña:
:
: http://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/Papers/camargo_sobel_jcl_2005.pdf
:
:
:
:
:

Message Thread:

convection to the east of Yap and Palau - raf January 19, 2006, 3:14 pm
- Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - T2K Board Administrator January 20, 2006, 7:51 am
  - Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - raf January 20, 2006, 9:16 am
    - Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - Rey January 20, 2006, 6:07 pm
    - Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - T2K Board Administrator January 20, 2006, 6:34 pm
      - Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - raf January 21, 2006, 8:56 am
        
        Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - T2K Board Administrator January 22, 2006, 8:39 am
        
        Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - raf January 24, 2006, 9:20 pm
        
        Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - T2K Board Administrator January 25, 2006, 7:50 am
      - Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - Rey January 21, 2006, 12:20 pm
        
        Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau - T2K Board Administrator January 22, 2006, 8:08 am
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--Previous Message-- : Thanks again michael! : : Oh i see. What you said clarified my : speculations about this La Nina season and : its forthcoming effects to our country. : HOwever, I would like to ask you again some : more things about this phenomenon. If ever : more storms develop within the PAR or : Philippine Area of Responsibility, how high : is the chance of these systems making : landfall in any part of our country? What : specific locations/places will be in the : path of these cyclones and what track or : direction will they take in general? (i.e. : if the storm develops just east of Yap, will : it take a WNW track or still a NW path just : like the path of significant typhoons in the : path which spares the Philippines by making : a curve to the northeast or north? Another : would be if the storm develops over the : South China Sea, will it take a : northeast/eastnortheast track or continue to : move west or north into parts of Vietnam or : Hongkong, respectively?) And lastly, in what : months will we expect an increase in the : number of tropical cyclone formations? : : Hope to hear from you soon michael! : : Cheers! : : --Previous Message-- : Hi Raf, : : If it develops, it's not the earliest...you : can check it out here: : : http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.html : : The area where this system might pass is : somewhere between Bicol down to Southern : Mindanao. The High pressure ridge over China : is strong during January, unless a very : strong Frontal System pull this system up. : As of now, the steering current will track : it West to WNW. : : As for the climate, I can see a moderate La : Niña, as what NOAA says. It's really hard to : predict how intense this phenomenon will be. : Let's just wait. As for the US, the Nat'l : Hurricane Center still predicts an ACTIVE : 2006, with again - series of major : hurricanes affecting Fla and Gulf Coast. : Here in the Philippines, there is a high : chance of increasing number of Tropical : Cyclones but less Super Typhoons. As you : know, a La Niña Season means more Tropical : Storms and less Super Typhoons and their : formation is close to the Philippines or : over the Philippine Sea and South China Sea. : I cannot guarantee you the precise outcome : of this phenomenon, but it may change. We'll : see. Here's a nice article regarding the : Tropical Cyclone Genesis during El Niña or : La Niña: : : : http://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/Papers/camargo_sobel_jcl_2005.pdf : : : : : : :

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