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Posted by T2K Board Administrator on January 22, 2006, 8:39 am, in reply to "Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau" Here are the answers to your questions: (1) If ever more storms develop within the PAR or Philippine Area of Responsibility, how high is the chance of these systems making landfall in any part of our country? ANSWER: It depends on the placement of the High Pressure Ridge during the rest of 2006 and the intensity of this mid-latitude Low Pressures (as they move from west to east above 25N Lat). Tropical Cyclones starts to move Northerly once a break or weak point on the High Pressure develops. This weak points are the result of intense mid-level Lows or frontal systems digging deeper into the tropics or below 25N. So, these high pressure ridges opens up -- It's like an arm extending downward to pick something. However, once a front or midlat low speeds up and leave the typhoon behind, the typhoon tends to move back to a generally Westward or WNW, again under the domain of the High Pressure unless another front shows up. (2) What specific locations/places will be in the path of these cyclones and what track or direction will they take in general? (i.e. if the storm develops just east of Yap, will it take a WNW track or still a NW path just like the path of significant typhoons in the path which spares the Philippines by making a curve to the northeast or north? Another would be if the storm develops over the South China Sea, will it take a northeast/eastnortheast track or continue to move west or north into parts of Vietnam or Hongkong, respectively?) ANSWER: Same as question 1. Btw, once a front/midlat low successfully captured a typhoon...its movement will be towards the North to NNE then eventually NE. (3) what months will we expect an increase in the number of tropical cyclone formations? ANSWER: Here's the mean average of TCs in the Westpac and SCS area from 1959-2003/1960-1999 respectively: Mean Average TCs (1959-2003) for Mean Average TCs (1960-1999) Out of these mean averages, you'll have a better view what months will be more active. I hope I answered you right. have a nice day! P.S> below are the yearly frequency...notice the drop in 2005? I see this graph to go up again in 2006 due to La Niņa..anyway, that's only my own guess. I may be wrong.
Board Administrator
Hi Raf, 
That's why when there's a Typhoon over the South China Sea and a front captures it - it's movement is ENE to NE.
Western North Pacific (incldg. Phil Sea)
----------------------------------------
Jan: 0.6
Feb: 0.3
Mar: 0.5
Apr: 0.8
May: 1.3
Jun: 2.0
Jul: 4.6
Aug: 6.6
Sep: 5.6
Oct: 4.7
Nov: 2.9
Dec: 1.6
for South China Sea
-------------------------------
Jan: 0.1
Feb: 0.0
Mar: 0.2
Apr: 0.2
May: 0.5
Jun: 1.0
Jul: 1.8
Aug: 1.9
Sep: 2.1
Oct: 2.1
Nov: 1.7
Dec: 0.7
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