Typhoon2000 Discussion Center: Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau

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Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau

Posted by raf on January 24, 2006, 9:20 pm, in reply to "Re: convection to the east of Yap and Palau"
203.215.92.59

thanks michael!
Your answers to my questions seem satisfactory, though I still have many queries about tropical cylones that linger in my mind. I was enlightened, so to speak.
thanks a lot!
it seems that agaton is on a weakening phase and it looks like we're going to wait for a long time before the next system forms. at this time of the year, tropical cyclone formations are usually rare because of wind shear and ocean temperature, i suppose..
michael, could you please share with me anything else you know about tropical cyclones? im really desperate as to the articles concerning meteorology.
--Previous Message--
: Hi Raf,
:
: Here are the answers to your questions:
: (1) If ever more storms develop within the
: PAR or Philippine Area of Responsibility,
: how high is the chance of these systems
: making landfall in any part of our country?
:
: ANSWER: It depends on the placement of the
: High Pressure Ridge during the rest of 2006
: and the intensity of this mid-latitude Low
: Pressures (as they move from west to east
: above 25N Lat). Tropical Cyclones starts to
: move Northerly once a break or weak point on
: the High Pressure develops. This weak points
: are the result of intense mid-level Lows or
: frontal systems digging deeper into the
: tropics or below 25N. So, these high
: pressure ridges opens up -- It's like an arm
: extending downward to pick something.
: However, once a front or midlat low speeds
: up and leave the typhoon behind, the typhoon
: tends to move back to a generally Westward
: or WNW, again under the domain of the High
: Pressure unless another front shows up.
:
: (2) What specific locations/places will be
: in the path of these cyclones and what track
: or direction will they take in general?
: (i.e. if the storm develops just east of
: Yap, will it take a WNW track or still a NW
: path just like the path of significant
: typhoons in the path which spares the
: Philippines by making a curve to the
: northeast or north? Another would be if the
: storm develops over the South China Sea,
: will it take a northeast/eastnortheast track
: or continue to move west or north into parts
: of Vietnam or Hongkong, respectively?)
:
: ANSWER: Same as question 1. Btw, once a
: front/midlat low successfully captured a
: typhoon...its movement will be towards the
: North to NNE then eventually NE. That's
: why when there's a Typhoon over the South
: China Sea and a front captures it - it's
: movement is ENE to NE.
:
: (3) what months will we expect an increase
: in the number of tropical cyclone
: formations?
:
: ANSWER: Here's the mean average of TCs in
: the Westpac and SCS area from
: 1959-2003/1960-1999 respectively:
: Mean Average TCs (1959-2003) for
: Western North Pacific (incldg. Phil Sea)
: ----------------------------------------
: Jan: 0.6
: Feb: 0.3
: Mar: 0.5
: Apr: 0.8
: May: 1.3
: Jun: 2.0
: Jul: 4.6
: Aug: 6.6
: Sep: 5.6
: Oct: 4.7
: Nov: 2.9
: Dec: 1.6
:
: Mean Average TCs (1960-1999)
: for South China Sea
: -------------------------------
: Jan: 0.1
: Feb: 0.0
: Mar: 0.2
: Apr: 0.2
: May: 0.5
: Jun: 1.0
: Jul: 1.8
: Aug: 1.9
: Sep: 2.1
: Oct: 2.1
: Nov: 1.7
: Dec: 0.7
:
: Out of these mean averages, you'll have a
: better view what months will be more active.
:
: I hope I answered you right. have a nice
: day!
:
: P.S> below are the yearly
: frequency...notice the drop in 2005? I see
: this graph to go up again in 2006 due to La
: Niña..anyway, that's only my own guess. I
: may be wrong.
:
:
: