Typhoon2000 Discussion Center: Re: Heavy Rains 23rd May 2006 Onwards

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Re: Heavy Rains 23rd May 2006 Onwards

Posted by jermaine Christopher Gaines on May 9, 2006, 6:46 pm, in reply to "Heavy Rains 23rd May 2006 Onwards"
202.14.85.241

yes i agree with that that now tropical storm caloy continue to intensify... based on my analysis with this disturbance, it would likely to intensify into category 1 or 2 depending on how fast this storm move and also how strong the subtropical ridge will influence this storm.. other than this the convective cloud over east of the storm will add more strenght with it until it moves towards luzon... if models and my personal analysis with this storm, most probably by friday or saturday this storm will lashed bicol regian probably as a category 2 typhoon and eastern and central luzon by sunday or monday..
maybe public may be warned about this cause i believe this storm might started to influence slowly the southwest monsoon and maybe itself dumped torrent heavy rains that might cause flashfloods and landslides.
also wuderground model shows this storm likely to stay in water(south china sea)for 12 hrs then eventually move north to northeast towards northern luzon by (just like typhoon kadiang last october 1994) tuesday or wednesday.. though it still depends no the situation over upper hemisphere..
thanks by the way for allowing me use this site to study and enhance more my knowledge about this. i hope i may help one day in situation like this.. more power
--Previous Message--
: Hi! Mike,
:
: It is around this time of the year that I
: post my "heavy rain" message, as
: follows:
:
: It might not be farfetched to expect heavy
: rains to come to Metro Manila and the
: neighboring provinces around the 23rd of
: May, 2006 and onwards.
:
: Whether this will come about exactly as I
: expect or not, being prepared is still part
: of a positive approach.
:

Message Thread:

Heavy Rains 23rd May 2006 Onwards - web_rain May 9, 2006, 1:08 pm
- Re: Heavy Rains 23rd May 2006 Onwards - jermaine Christopher Gaines May 9, 2006, 6:46 pm
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--Previous Message-- : yes i agree with that that now tropical storm : caloy continue to intensify... based on my : analysis with this disturbance, it would : likely to intensify into category 1 or 2 : depending on how fast this storm move and : also how strong the subtropical ridge will : influence this storm.. other than this the : convective cloud over east of the storm will : add more strenght with it until it moves : towards luzon... if models and my personal : analysis with this storm, most probably by : friday or saturday this storm will lashed : bicol regian probably as a category 2 : typhoon and eastern and central luzon by : sunday or monday.. : maybe public may be warned about this cause : i believe this storm might started to : influence slowly the southwest monsoon and : maybe itself dumped torrent heavy rains that : might cause flashfloods and landslides. : also wuderground model shows this storm : likely to stay in water(south china sea)for : 12 hrs then eventually move north to : northeast towards northern luzon by (just : like typhoon kadiang last october 1994) : tuesday or wednesday.. though it still : depends no the situation over upper : hemisphere.. : thanks by the way for allowing me use this : site to study and enhance more my knowledge : about this. i hope i may help one day in : situation like this.. more power : : --Previous Message-- : Hi! Mike, : : It is around this time of the year that I : post my "heavy rain" message, as : follows: : : It might not be farfetched to expect heavy : rains to come to Metro Manila and the : neighboring provinces around the 23rd of : May, 2006 and onwards. : : Whether this will come about exactly as I : expect or not, being prepared is still part : of a positive approach. : : :

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