[ Post a Response | Typhoon2000 Discussion Center ]
Posted by T2K Board Administrator on June 3, 2006, 1:53 am, in reply to "Re: suspected area of a tropical system brewing" ---> Remember that on the avg, during late May and early June, the SW Monsoon is located well to the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. If you check the satellite images as of this moment, you'll see the evidence of the SW-to-NE oriented thunderstorm clouds - a sign that the monsoon season has started already. The SW Monsoon is strongest across Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea. Here in the Philippines, the peak of the SW Monsoon happens during July to Sep. There are times in past years, that the SW Monsoon starts too early and too late, that depends on the ENSO Mode. Try to analyze that when the trade winds is so strong (A La Niņa situation) - the SW Monsoon can be suppresed along the South China Sea area only with only some affecting RP during recurving typhoons along the Manila-Okinawa line. I also analyzed that the SW Monsoon here in the Philippines are enhance by passing TCs (TD, TS, TY, STY) and strong mid-lat LPs across Southern Japan and China. Try removing these "disturbance-sucking-monsoon" - the SW Monsoon over RP will be weak, and most rainfall will be generated by the now prevailing localized tropical thunderstorms (caused by ITCZ and Tropical Waves). Is it because of a strong ridge of High Pressure located to the north of Luzon that hinders any tropical system to form? ---> The Ridge is located well to the ENE of RP across the Marianas and not north of us...check this analysis chart: are the waters of the South China Sea and Pacific Ocean not yet warm enough to fuel the genesis of a particular storm? ---> It is warm enough, however there are certain factors you must consider, our country is under major "stable" air masses right now, we are speaking of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)...Our country is under supressed convection as of this time. So, TC formation is less likely. Try reading MJO to fully understand the phenomenon (discovered during the 80s) (complete with weekly analysis): Image below shows suppressed mode for today (june 2)...if you read this later in the month, the MJO might change already. As for 94W, we must take note that NRL designate this as a Tropical Disturbance. If a Tropical Disturbance existed for more than 24 hours, this is something to watch on, however, after 24 hours - it fizzled out! So, this is no longer a suspect worth watching. NRL also deleted 94W. It looks like the next TC might come in late...maybe 2nd week thru the last week of June, based on the evolution of MJO - however, midget system can develop even during suppressed mode of MJO. So, never stop watching our breeding grounds (WestPac/SCS), you'll never know what will happen next...
Board Administrator
hmm,, just want to ask why is it that the southwest monsoon hasn't arrived yet in our country especially in the western parts of Luzon and Visayas? What's the main reason behind this?
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest.pl?IDCODE=IDX0016
(1) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
(2) http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/MJO/Forecasts/
Message Thread:
« Back to thread
:: Receive Typhoon Updates directly on your mobile phones!
To know more...Text T2K HELP to 216 (SMART & TNT),
2800 (GLOBE & TM) & 2288 (SUN).