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forecast

Posted by jermaine on June 14, 2006, 11:11 pm
202.14.85.241

MSLP/900 hPa Vorticity Analyses reveals that the High pressure area over North of Marianas completely deminished. Area of lows (1012mb at 29N 142E southeast moving slowly, 1008 mb at 51N 165E south-southeast moving 20 knots) over southern China and southern Japan respectively
850 hPa Wind Analyses indicates an continuous Southeast to South movement over Philippines though there is an area east of Mindanao (almost 10N 130E) possible low level circulation (unexposed).
West Pacific - Water Vapor Loop shows an area of unexposed low pressure over east of mindanao, a still lingering area of frontal system over North of the Philippines and Tropical waves passing through the country. Both South China sea and Pacific Ocean are having a very moist air due to possible high temperature of the Ocean.
West Pacific - Funktop Color Infrared Loop shows an active convective activity east of mindanao due to a suspicious area of low pressure system. heavy rains still expected over southern China and taiwan for 24 hours. continuous formation of convection over the Philippines due to the presence of still active tropical waves passing through the country and frontal system over north.
due to this the whole country expected to have mostly cloudy with thunderstorms becoming widespread over Mindanao due to the presence of suspicious convective low pressure. winds will be from the southeast (10-15 knots) over Luzon and becoming southeast to south with at times changeable (5-10 knots) over the rest of the country.
though theres an area of active convection over east of Mindanao with unexposed low level wind circulation, high vertical wind shear prevented for further intensification so with this no tropical cyclone expected for atleast 2-3 days.
i will keep monitoring this system if theres any possible changes.
this forecast is based on actual models indicated above.

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forecast - jermaine June 14, 2006, 11:11 pm
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--Previous Message-- : MSLP/900 hPa Vorticity Analyses reveals that : the High pressure area over North of : Marianas completely deminished. Area of : lows (1012mb at 29N 142E southeast moving : slowly, 1008 mb at 51N 165E south-southeast : moving 20 knots) over southern China and : southern Japan respectively : : 850 hPa Wind Analyses indicates an : continuous Southeast to South movement over : Philippines though there is an area east of : Mindanao (almost 10N 130E) possible low : level circulation (unexposed). : : West Pacific - Water Vapor Loop shows an : area of unexposed low pressure over east of : mindanao, a still lingering area of frontal : system over North of the Philippines and : Tropical waves passing through the country. : Both South China sea and Pacific Ocean are : having a very moist air due to possible high : temperature of the Ocean. : : West Pacific - Funktop Color Infrared Loop : shows an active convective activity east of : mindanao due to a suspicious area of low : pressure system. heavy rains still expected : over southern China and taiwan for 24 hours. : continuous formation of convection over the : Philippines due to the presence of still : active tropical waves passing through the : country and frontal system over north. : : : : due to this the whole country expected to : have mostly cloudy with thunderstorms : becoming widespread over Mindanao due to the : presence of suspicious convective low : pressure. winds will be from the southeast : (10-15 knots) over Luzon and becoming : southeast to south with at times changeable : (5-10 knots) over the rest of the country. : : though theres an area of active convection : over east of Mindanao with unexposed low : level wind circulation, high vertical wind : shear prevented for further intensification : so with this no tropical cyclone expected : for atleast 2-3 days. : : i will keep monitoring this system if theres : any possible changes. : : : : this forecast is based on actual models : indicated above. : : : :

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