[ Post a Response | Typhoon2000 Discussion Center ]
Posted by weathergaines Sept 26, 2006 11p Sept 27, 2006 11p Above you can see my forecast based on MSAT, MIMIC, JWTC, JMA...thats why iam so puzzled that time why they say it is only a minimal C1 system that in fact it was a C3 system. exactly 9p of sept 27- 1a of Sept 28, i saw how Milenyo's eye pass through Albay almost south of Naga... they say that it was 130-160 kph and expected to weaken as it cross land.. remember on typhoon caloy? it gathers strength while it was over mindoro... maybe their equipment were merely old to forecast. actually they say in one radio station (DZMM), they are using NOAA satellite images to see an hourly image... for me they must be more accurate, more imformative in giving exact data/forecast on us so that they may give definite and accurate report inorder for everyone be alert... how can they explain this... thanks and more power!!!
on October 3, 2006, 4:49 pm, in reply to "Windspeed of PAGASA on MILENYO"
210.213.174.100
Sept 25, 2006 11p
A: Tropical depression 18W [Milenyo]
Pressure: 1002mb
Location: 11.5N,127.7E
windspeed: 35-45 kts/64-83 kph
Track: 11 kts/20 kph
Windshear: 5-10 kts
24 hrs: decreasing
Low Level Convergence: 15 kts
Upper Level Divergence: 10 kts
Description:
Water vapor images shows the system having a broader mosture content for the past 6 hrs.
Convection: deepening of LLCC is fast, an indication the system intensifyng rapidly. Convection grew larger for the past 6 hrs.
Rainfall: heavy to very heavy rains over inner band.
Report:
18W/milenyo deepens for the past 6 hrs an indication the system is intensifying and moved W slowly. A Low over north of the system interacts with the movement. An approaching High ridge (1020mb) from Southern China expected to be a steering mechanism for its movement. The system is expected to be a storm tonight and eventually attain C1 by wednesday AM. The probability to hit land is high over Luzon by thursday once the system affected by the Ridge
Tropical storm Alert: Samar, N. Leyte, Sorsogon, Albay, Catanduanes, Masbate
Tropical storm Warning: the rest of Bicol Region, rest of Leyte, Quezon, Dinagat is,
Other Warning: Eastern and Southern Tagalog region
A: Tropical Storm Xangsane [18W/Milenyo]
Pressure: 994mb
Location: 12.0N,127E
windspeed: 55-70 kts/102-130
Track: WNW @ 7 kts./13 kph
Windshear: 5 kts
24 hrs: decreasing
Low Level Convergence: 20 kts
Upper Level Divergence: 5-10 kts
Description:
Water vapor images shows the system getting larger with very deep moisture over LLCC. monsoon waves intensifyng.
Convection: Convective clouds over innerband grew larger with some quick deepening for the past 4 hrs.
Rainfall: heavy to very heavy rains SW of the LLCC with moderate to heavy rains over the rest of the inner band.
Report:
Xangsane intensify rapidly and now a strong storm. It intensify due to good environment such as low vertical windshear which is expected to decrease for the next 12 hrs. The system expected to moved WNW to W as High pressure ridge over the Pacific building up as Low shows some weakness. It expect to reach a C1 status by tomorrow Am but will limit its further intensification due to the proximity in land as it moves towards Bicol region.
Xangsane Severe Alert: Bicol region, Quezon, Laguna, Mla, Rizal, Batangas, Cavite, Bulacan, Bataan, North Oriental Mindoro, marinduque, Polilio is.
Xangsane Alert: central Luzon, rest of mindoro, Burias is, Aurora, Pangasinan, Masbate, Northern Samar.
Xangsane Warning: Rest of Samar, Northern Leyte, Northern Cebu, Panay is, Busuanga is/calamian group, Ilocos sur, Abra, Quirino, Nueva Viscaya, Northern Negros.
Xangsane Watch: rest of Luzon and Visayas.
A: Category 4 Xangsane [18W/Milenyo]
Pressure: 960mb
Location: 13.1N,123.1E/over west of Legaspi Albay
windspeed: 105-135 kts/195-250 kph
Track: WNW @ 11 kts/20 kph.
Windshear: 5 kts
24 hrs: decreasing with slight increase thereafter
Low Level Convergence: 60 kts
Upper Level Divergence: 10 kts
Description:
Water vapor images shows the system is large with still deep moisture content near the center.
Convection: Convective clouds over innerband grew larger with still some deepening overland, a rare event occur. Eye still visible though cloud-filled
Rainfall: heavy to very heavy over most of the innerband
Report:
Xangsane intensify above climatological rate due to very low vertical windshear, high temperature and good equatorial flow. It maintain its strength and probably gathers more as it moves toward to the water. The system currently over land and expected to cross southern Camarines Sur and Norte by early AM, then moves toward southern Quezon, Laguna by early afternoon, Southern Mmla, Cavite by sunset before moving toward southchina sea. The system is moving under the influence of strong subtropical ridge over China (1022mb) as it accelerate slightly. A more westerly tract is possible but the timing is unpredictable due to the High pressure ridge.
-------------------------------------------------
NAIA registered a maximum windspeed of 184kph 1 hr before the eye pass and in my area in Las-Pinas up to 195 kph record of wind to the fact that they DOWNGRADED IT TO TROPICAL STORM (110-140 KPH)... i don't want to think that they don't know how to read images and data's emitted by weather satellites also non-professional meteorologist!!! now Bebinca/Neneng still looping abnormally today, i hope they look more further and understand to give a good and accurate forecast.
--Previous Message--
: Hi guys,
:
: It looks like our weather agency, again
: erroneously placed the intensity of MILENYO
: too low...even if the EYE becomes clearer
: and clearer - a sign of explosive
: deepening...their wind speed was still fixed
: at 130 kph!!! JTWC placed it at 115 kts,
: while JMA increased their winds surprisingly
: to 90 kts from 70 kts hours before it
: slammed into Bacon, Sorsogon and Legazpi
: City.
:
: The poor analysis of our weather agency was
: clearly evident, when MILENYO was over
: Lucena-San Pablo Area, they downgraded it to
: a storm!!! My goodness! how can they
: downgrade this typhoon - the eyewall's still
: intact when it passed over NCR! Nobody can
: be fooled, the overturning of 10-wheeler
: trucks, the downed billboards across EDSA
: and SLEX, the 27 downed NAPOCOR Power Lines
: across Quezon and Bicol - can easily say
: that MILENYO was really a TYPHOON either
: Category 2 or 3 in the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
: JTWC remained robust that they placed it at
: 105 kts (Category 3) while JMA was at 70
: kts...a far cry from PAGASA's 110 kph!!!
:
: All I can say...HELP US LORD!!!
:
: Kindly check out this article regarding
: their puzzlement on MILENYO - for me its
: very NORMAL!!!
:
:
: http://www.inq7.net/specialfeatures/milenyo/view.php?db=1&story_id=23984
:
: The question is: Are they professionals???
:
: GOOD JOB & CONGRATULATIONS goes to the
: guys at JTWC and JMA! They're the best!
:
:
:
:
Message Thread:
« Back to thread
:: Receive Typhoon Updates directly on your mobile phones!
To know more...Text T2K HELP to 216 (SMART & TNT),
2800 (GLOBE & TM) & 2288 (SUN).