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Posted by weathergaines A: Tropical Depression 23W (Quennie/90W) PRESSURE: 1002mb DESCRIPTION WATER VAPOR: very deep area of moisture over the area with some steep moisture from poleward channel. REPORT/ANALYSIS: tropical depression 23W was located over very favourable area for intensification. Based on satellite imaging, very weak and broad with rapidly deepening windshear, good divergence aloft and poleward outflow, warm SST expected to induce rapid intensification within 12-24hrs. It expected to attain a minimal to average storm tonight. 850 vorticity images shows the system somewhat positioning more on equatorial area between 13.5-15.0N due to 2 competing strong subtropical ridges, one over Open pacific 1028mb with another developing over south china 1022mb. The said ridges will buildup east with the one over south of china be a steering one to 23W forcing this system to moved more on a W with some WSW/SW track throughout 48 hrs. WARNING SEVERE ALERT:
on November 9, 2006, 8:08 am
Message modified by board administrator November 9, 2006, 6:04 pm
as of 9a
LOCATION:15.8N,133.8E
WINDSPEED:30-40kts
TRACK:W to WSW @ 10kts
WINDSHEAR: 5-10kts
24 HRS:decreasing rapidly
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (LLC): 0kts with 5kts over NE of the system.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (ULD): 5-20kts
CONVECTION: Convective clouds started to consolidate to LLCC with some rapid deepening. Convective clouds associcated by poleward channel still deep.
RAINFALL (AMOUNT):0.2-1.2in/hr (heavy to very heavy over LLCC)
ALERT:
WARNING: Bicol Region
WATCH: Luzon
well this is my analysis based on different satellite models. It seems that this system somewhat pushes by Ridges over Northern hemisphere more on between 13.5-15.0 as shown on latest vorticity images. somehow even it is far from us this system inducing serious threat again over Luzon.
what do you think mr.webmaster???
thanks and regard.
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