Typhoon2000 Discussion Center: super typhoon Chebi?????

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super typhoon Chebi?????

Posted by weathergaines on November 10, 2006, 9:28 pm
202.128.59.242

as of 10p
A: Category 4 Chebi [Quennie/23W/90W]
PRESSURE: 916mb
LOCATION:16.2N, 124.2E
WINDSPEED:125-145kts/231-269kph
TRACK: W to WSW @ 12kts/22kph
WINDSHEAR: 5-10kts
24 HRS: decreasing
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (LLC): 10-15kts SW Quandrant; 10kts NE Quandrant
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (ULD): 5 kts SE and NW Quandrant
DESCRIPTION
WATER VAPOR: very deep area of moisture over the system with very good poleward outflow.
CONVECTION: rapid deepening area of well organized convective clouds over inner band with small eye.
RAINFALL (AMOUNT): 0.1-1.2in/hr over inner band/ heavy to very heavy rains over near eye.
REPORT/ANALYSIS: Chebi intensify into C4 system for 12 hrs, a rare event occur. Latest satellite images shows still very good poleward outflow though divergence aloft weakens a bit a very weak and continuous decrease of windshear and 28 C SST provide some fuel for this system to intensify as it remain on a W tract. The timing for movement into WSW still undetermine as some weakness over Siberian high (1028mb) extending over Northern Marianas Is act as a steering mechanizm for its movement. hoewever despite of this weakness, it expect to rebuild as frontal trough weakening and begins to push this system to a more WSW to SW for the next 12-24 hrs as said the timing still undetermined. It still expected to gather more and likely to attain a C5 status before it hit directly Aurora.
WARNING
SEVERE ALERT: Aurora, N Quezon, Polilio is, Bulacan, Quirino, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Viscaya, Tarlac, Pampanga, Pangasinan, Zambales, Benguet, La Union. (expect a direct hit or 100km away from the center)
ALERT: Rizal, mmla, Bataan, Cavite, Laguna, Isabela, Ifugao, S Mt. Province, S Ilocos Sur. (100-200km away from the center)
WARNING:Rest of Luzon, Marinduque, N mindoro. (some minimal effect such as rain and winds up to 55kph or less )
WATCH: Northern Visayas. (rain/thundershower)
Amazingly intensify into C4 system for only 12 hrs. PAGASA put this again to 120-150kph but so far its look like likely to be a category 5. above analysis are based on latest satellite images however MIMIC measure its wind only up to 65 kts.
well we need to take a precautionary measure in response with this system which expected to hit land sometimes between AM to afternoon tomorrow.

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super typhoon Chebi????? - weathergaines November 10, 2006, 9:28 pm
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--Previous Message-- : as of 10p : : A: Category 4 Chebi [Quennie/23W/90W] : PRESSURE: 916mb : LOCATION:16.2N, 124.2E : WINDSPEED:125-145kts/231-269kph : TRACK: W to WSW @ 12kts/22kph : WINDSHEAR: 5-10kts : 24 HRS: decreasing : LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (LLC): 10-15kts SW : Quandrant; 10kts NE Quandrant : UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (ULD): 5 kts SE and : NW Quandrant : DESCRIPTION : WATER VAPOR: very deep area of moisture over : the system with very good poleward outflow. : CONVECTION: rapid deepening area of well : organized convective clouds over inner band : with small eye. : RAINFALL (AMOUNT): 0.1-1.2in/hr over inner : band/ heavy to very heavy rains over near : eye. : REPORT/ANALYSIS: Chebi intensify into C4 : system for 12 hrs, a rare event occur. : Latest satellite images shows still very : good poleward outflow though divergence : aloft weakens a bit a very weak and : continuous decrease of windshear and 28 C : SST provide some fuel for this system to : intensify as it remain on a W tract. The : timing for movement into WSW still : undetermine as some weakness over Siberian : high (1028mb) extending over Northern : Marianas Is act as a steering mechanizm for : its movement. hoewever despite of this : weakness, it expect to rebuild as frontal : trough weakening and begins to push this : system to a more WSW to SW for the next : 12-24 hrs as said the timing still : undetermined. It still expected to gather : more and likely to attain a C5 status before : it hit directly Aurora. : : WARNING : SEVERE ALERT: Aurora, N Quezon, Polilio is, : Bulacan, Quirino, Nueva Ecija, Nueva : Viscaya, Tarlac, Pampanga, Pangasinan, : Zambales, Benguet, La Union. (expect a : direct hit or 100km away from the center) : ALERT: Rizal, mmla, Bataan, Cavite, Laguna, : Isabela, Ifugao, S Mt. Province, S Ilocos : Sur. (100-200km away from the center) : WARNING:Rest of Luzon, Marinduque, N : mindoro. (some minimal effect such as rain : and winds up to 55kph or less ) : WATCH: Northern Visayas. : (rain/thundershower) : : Amazingly intensify into C4 system for only : 12 hrs. PAGASA put this again to 120-150kph : but so far its look like likely to be a : category 5. above analysis are based on : latest satellite images however MIMIC : measure its wind only up to 65 kts. : well we need to take a precautionary measure : in response with this system which expected : to hit land sometimes between AM to : afternoon tomorrow. :

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