Typhoon2000 Discussion Center: Severe Tropical Storm Durian/Reming

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Severe Tropical Storm Durian/Reming

Posted by weathergaines on November 28, 2006, 10:28 am
202.128.59.11

A: Severe tropical Storm Durian (Reming/92w/24W)

PRESSURE: 984mb
LOCATION: 11.4N, 134.9E
WINDSPEED: 62kts-77kts/114-143kph
TRACK: WNW @ 15kts/28kts
850 VORTICITY: High
WINDSHEAR: 5-10kts
24 HRS: decreasing slightly
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (LLC): 15kts
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (ULD): 20kts

DESCRIPTION

WATER VAPOR: Large and broad area of moisture over the area with some good equatial flow as seen over vapor images.
CONVECTION: Still consolidating and deepening but not explosively convective clouds over inner band.
RAINFALL (AMOUNT):0.1-0.9in/hr over the inner band.
REPORT/ANALYSIS: Durian/Reming slightly turned WNW for the past 6 hrs in response on the departure of strong subtropical Ridge (1032mb) anchored over Japan/NE of the system, recently as it moves more on an E direction. Durian expected to continues to moved WNW within 24-36 hrs but another high over China (1026mb) building up and expected to become a steering mechanism for its movement after 36 hrs however there is a possibility on early shift back on W tract depending on the reaction of Durian over this high and so the timing is unpredictable for a while. Durian expected to intensify into a C1 system this afternoon and eventually reaching C2 tomorrow as good divergence aloft and improvement over equatorial flow induce its further intensification in contribution of warm SST over Philippine sea.
WARNING

SEVERE ALERT:
ALERT: Bicol Region, E Visayas
WARNING: Visayas, E Luzon
WATCH: Rest of Luzon, NE Mindanao
Some models shows this system moving on a WNW to NW tract maybe because of a frontal system from a strong Low far E of Japan and the departure of the Strong Ridge, but there is another building Ridge over China and somehow likely to affect Durian movement hence possible to push more on a W to WSW tract. I don't know how this high will react over this front but i guess it is weak to induce a poleward channel that might turn this system more on a NW to N tract. I sense that this system might hit in between 12.5-15 N latitute and considering to attain a C3 to C4 depending on its present speed. I see also that this system might slow down a bit. This one is quite freaky and so i keep monitoring this cause there is a 75-% probability hitting Bicol and Southern Tagalog region.
Am i right????
thanks and more power!!!
God bless us all!!!

Message Thread:

Severe Tropical Storm Durian/Reming - weathergaines November 28, 2006, 10:28 am
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--Previous Message-- : A: Severe tropical Storm Durian : (Reming/92w/24W) : : PRESSURE: 984mb : LOCATION: 11.4N, 134.9E : WINDSPEED: 62kts-77kts/114-143kph : TRACK: WNW @ 15kts/28kts : 850 VORTICITY: High : WINDSHEAR: 5-10kts : 24 HRS: decreasing slightly : LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (LLC): 15kts : UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (ULD): 20kts : : DESCRIPTION : : WATER VAPOR: Large and broad area of : moisture over the area with some good : equatial flow as seen over vapor images. : CONVECTION: Still consolidating and : deepening but not explosively convective : clouds over inner band. : RAINFALL (AMOUNT):0.1-0.9in/hr over the : inner band. : : REPORT/ANALYSIS: Durian/Reming slightly : turned WNW for the past 6 hrs in response on : the departure of strong subtropical Ridge : (1032mb) anchored over Japan/NE of the : system, recently as it moves more on an E : direction. Durian expected to continues to : moved WNW within 24-36 hrs but another high : over China (1026mb) building up and expected : to become a steering mechanism for its : movement after 36 hrs however there is a : possibility on early shift back on W tract : depending on the reaction of Durian over : this high and so the timing is unpredictable : for a while. Durian expected to intensify : into a C1 system this afternoon and : eventually reaching C2 tomorrow as good : divergence aloft and improvement over : equatorial flow induce its further : intensification in contribution of warm SST : over Philippine sea. : : WARNING : : SEVERE ALERT: ALERT: Bicol Region, E Visayas : WARNING: Visayas, E Luzon : WATCH: Rest of Luzon, NE Mindanao : : : : Some models shows this system moving on a : WNW to NW tract maybe because of a frontal : system from a strong Low far E of Japan and : the departure of the Strong Ridge, but there : is another building Ridge over China and : somehow likely to affect Durian movement : hence possible to push more on a W to WSW : tract. I don't know how this high will react : over this front but i guess it is weak to : induce a poleward channel that might turn : this system more on a NW to N tract. I sense : that this system might hit in between : 12.5-15 N latitute and considering to attain : a C3 to C4 depending on its present speed. I : see also that this system might slow down a : bit. This one is quite freaky and so i keep : monitoring this cause there is a 75-% : probability hitting Bicol and Southern : Tagalog region. : Am i right???? : thanks and more power!!! : God bless us all!!! : : :

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