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Posted by weathergaines here is my personal analyses for this disturbance: As of 11p WARNING i don't know if we have the same perception of webmaster about this system.
on December 6, 2006, 10:53 pm, in reply to "Another is Coming?"
202.128.59.11
Definitely, some models shows this system likely to hit between 11-13.5N latitude by Dec 9-11.
A: Severe Tropical Disturbance Alert 93W (RE: Utor/Seniang)
PRESSURE: 1006mb
LOCATION: 8.8N, 140.7E
WINDSPEED: 15-20kts
TRACK: W @ 13kts
850 VORTICITY: Moderate to High
WINDSHEAR: 5-10kts
24 HRS: Decreasing slightly (-10kts)
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (LLC): 10kts
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (ULD): 20kts
DESCRIPTION
WATER VAPOR: Deepening area of vapor over LLCC embedded with the steep vapor over NE due to cold front.
CONVECTION: Consolidating area of convection over LLCC.
RAINFALL (AMOUNT): 0.1-0.9in/hr over the area.
REPORT/ANALYSIS: STDA 93W continues to consolidate based on latest satellite loop. 850 vorticity images shows some increase with its vertical wind for the past 9hrs. The system currently under the steering High over Japan (1032mb) pushes more the system between 8-9N latitute. A more W tract expected over the next 24 hrs. Improvement of vorticity wind, good divergence aloft and Low Level convergence wind and weak vertical shear with some decreasing trend, improvement of poleward and equatorial outflow put/upgraded this system from TDA to STDA for possible development within 24 hrs into depression.
SEVERE ALERT: Yap is.
ALERT:
WARNING:E Visayas
WATCH: NE mindanao
--Previous Message--
: Are we still expecting another howler before
: the year ends?
: I see some convections east of Mindanao...
:
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