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Posted by weathergaines
on August 26, 2008, 9:52 am, in reply to "Next Storm / Typhoon?"
124.105.123.110
So far PAGASA upgraded the system into depression named LAWIN. Chances it may become a minimal storm (about 75-95kph max wind) are possible if environment continues to favor. So far shear remain at 7.5kts average within the area of Luzon, and SST are warmer at 31C at depth of 100m average. Vortices still increases and Convection along LLCC deepening so far with ocean heat content over the area are not below at 80kj, fair upper level divergence over the area of LLCC improving indicating strenghtening likely to happen within 36hrs or before its landfall by late wednesday or early thursday morning near Baler Quezon if its speed remain at 11kph average. A more WNW path likely with some possibility of W movement as HPA over N of Philippines become a steering influence for LAWIN based on my observation.
--Previous Message--
: It seems that a cluster of thunderstorms to
: the east of Visayas is getting a bit
: organized. Will this be our next tropical
: cyclone? What is the probability that it
: will indeed develop? What path will it take?
: These are the questions we have to be
: mindful about this week.
:
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