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Posted by weathergaines
on June 11, 2009, 11:30 am, in reply to "Re: About SW Monsoon"
69.8.124.133
So far possibility will be moderate depending on how strong the said shortwave trough affects the building high pressure ridge but if we're talking of 24-72hrs, then there is a slim chance we may encounter the same level of intensity in terms of rain just like last week as the said Ridge continues to build up and becoming a primary steering influence. However, if 98W survive and develop, then after 48-72hrs we might have it. There's a lot of possibility right now but the first scenario i gave dominates the most.
--Previous Message--
: Thank you very much sir for the explanation.
: I've read on your blog that the southwest
: monsoon will start to weaken due to high
: pressure over Taiwan-Japan. Are we likely to
: experience strong monsoon again after this?
:
: --Previous Message--
: HI!!!
:
: Based on my analysis, what contributes this
: strong monsoon rain were enhanced by series
: of strong shortwave trough. shortwave trough
: is defined as "A disturbance in the mid
: or upper part of the atmosphere which
: induces upward motion ahead of it. If other
: conditions are favorable, the upward motion
: can contribute to thunderstorm development
: ahead of a shortwave trough" its effect
: are: Shortwaves are often associated with
: warm (WAA) or cold air advection (CAA),
: which influence temperature. Due to the way
: they curve the air that moves around them
: and the way air moves away from them,
: shortwaves produce positive curvature
: vorticity and positive shear vorticity,
: respectively. Ahead of a shortwave there is
: large-scale lift due to divergence from
: positive vorticity advection (PVA). This
: lift often sparks precipitation. In a capped
: environment, the lift generated by a
: shortwave may cool the inversion layer
: through adiabatic cooling, allowing for
: deep, moist convection.
:
: As this shortwave troughs moves more
: equatorward, like typhoons and low pressure
: areas, it affects the strength of southwest
: wind. That is to be observed by looking over
: IR/VIS weather satellite imagery like what
: happen last week a couple of shortwave
: trough pass over Northern Philipines which
: strengthen the aouthwest wind which known as
: monsoon. HERE ARE THE EXAMPLE IMAGERY DATED
: TODAY JUNE 8, 2009 AT 0130UTC
:
:
:
:
:
: --Previous Message--
: Hi. Since the SW monsoon started I've
: noticed
: that it seems it has become stronger. Last
: year if im not mistaken we only have strong
: monsoon rains only if there was a typhoon
: enhancing it. Are the current disturbances
: really that strong enough to induce strong
: monsoon rains?
:
: Also about the coming El Nino, are we going
: to have a short rainy season? Does this
: monsoon rains shows a transition from La
: Nina to El Nino condition, like the opposite
: of what happened June to early August 2007?
:
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