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Posted by Webmaster (Michael Padua) on June 15, 2009, 12:50 pm, in reply to "'Feria' is certainly coming!"
Message modified by board administrator June 15, 2009, 12:53 pm
Well, overnight dry air entrainment into the circulation of 98W has weakened it considerably. Now it started trying to get some convection with some passing over Naga City and Bicol Region (as moderate to heavy rains started falling a few hours ago until now). 98W is having a hard time due to its close proximity to Luzon and the broader ITCZ which resulted to another circulation (99W) to its SE and a weaker one just west of Palawan -- aside of course from the dry air intrusion. The SW monsoon (by looking at the latest satloop) has started to invade Palawan and portions of Southern Visayas and Southern Mindanao.
The SW Monsoon may not be as strong as expected due to the dry-phase of the MJO located west of 125E longitude..while wet MJO can be seen east of 125E long.
So that's the real situation right now.
If only the MJO is on a wetphase, we might be looking at 98W as a powerful TC and a stronger SW Monsoonal flow.
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