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Posted by weathergaines
on July 3, 2009, 10:28 am, in reply to "El Nino coming ?"
122.3.115.13
yes El-nino is expected to come this end of the year to spring next year as major model guidance indicates continues warming of eastern equatorial pacific and continues below normal low level eastely wind over the area with some above normal cloudiness over international dateline.
Actually, stronger tropical cyclones (mostly leveling up to category 3-4) are likely during this period as stronger MJO usually take place before El-nino arrives. This is one characteristic of MJO as defined....
"In the Pacific, strong MJO activity is often observed 6 – 12 months prior to the onset of an El Niño episode, but is virtually absent during an El Niño episode, while MJO activity is typically greater during a La Niña episode".
So if MJO is stronger then more enhanced rainfall expected as enhanced phase of convection are over this period and if a tropical cyclone develop, it aids its intensification resulted to more powerful tropical cyclone.
After MJO arrived, Suppressed phase of convection expected resulted to a more dry weather during this period and as EL nino arrives, drier weather as MJO becomes more absent during this time.
Overall, stronger tropical cyclone and wet conditions expected as MJO arrives moreover late July or early august this year.
for El-nino update visit the following sites:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
or my blog at
http://weathergaines.blogspot.com/
look for july 1 update 
--Previous Message--
: Is it really true that the El
: Nino Phenomenon is coming? How will it
: affect our climate,can we expect a drier 2nd
: half of the year? can we expext lesser
: typhoons and lesser rainfall?
:
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