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Posted by weathergaines
on March 25, 2010, 11:11 am, in reply to "Re: Rain expected over eastern and southern mindanao this weekend"
112.203.54.253
Well our hope for this intense tropical storm fades as it is under the steering influence of a low pressure trough which caused the weakening of high pressure ridge and increase of VWS along the northern part. the said low pressure trough allows a development of what we call poleward channel. Strong dry westerly wind and VWS will tear this system and eventually dissipated as significant tropical cyclone as it moves more pole ward direction within 48-60hrs.
The other cluster you mention has a very low probability to develop over western pacific but high over south pacific. This SPCZ (south pacific convergence zone) is likely to induce one tropical storm within the next 72-96hrs over South Pacific... so meaning there's no next tropical storm to follow Omais.
--Previous Message--
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:
: --Previous Message--
: I agree with you. I'm also looking at
: another
: cluster of clouds at the back of this
: disturbance. make that two!
:
: Cheers!
:
:
:
: The first disturbance already became a
: tropical storm named 02W by JTWC and Agaton
: by PAGASA. Initial forecasts show a sharp
: recurve away from the country but I wish for
: some rainbands to affect us to ease the
: problem caused by El Nino.
:
: Oh well, it sounds funny that we are now
: praying for rains to come this year, but
: last year we beg for the rains to be over.
: Is this the effect of climate change? Real
: intense rainy season at some time then a
: severe hot and dry season coming right after
: that...
:
: By the way, I thought I was the only one
: seeing over that cloud clusters behind 02W,
: but I'm not sure of its chances to
: develop...
:
:
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