
Posted by David Michael V. Padua on June 22, 2010, 1:20 am, in reply to "TUTT cells"
Board Administrator
Yup Nikos,
please read this article published in 1998:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/typ98IA-3.txt
Our season is similar to '98. Changing from a strong el nino towards la nina.
And take note that the Madden-Julian Oscillation's Wet-phase -- which triggers TC remains stationary over the Indian Ocean.
Another thing is the strong easterly trades up to the SCS. A signal that the lady child is coming.
I think July is the month to see a TC forming. ECMWF already has shown a system developing west of Luzon or off the SCS.
Overall, Dr. Chan's forecast of a below-average 2010 Season is most likely.
http://weather.cityu.edu.hk/tc_forecast/forecast.htm
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