The SW Monsoon is limited only over the Indian Ocean and along parts of Indochina. This is the result of our transition into a La Nina Event. Actually latest BoM ENSO update yesterday showed we are now in the early stages of La Nina.
During La Nina, the Western Pacific is dominated with stronger-than average Easterlies (wind system from blowing from East to West). That's the reason why the convergence point is along the South China Sea - where we saw TC formation over there.
There is also a link between the Madden-Julian Oscillation which is stationary along Africa-Indian Ocean area. If this MJO moves towards the Philippine Sea and a little of the WestPac, we might see a slight to moderate SW Monsoon. Based on the last MJO run, it should finally be reaching the Philippine Sea by mid-August. That means, more TCs will be forming.
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