Re: South West Monsoon "pushing" cyclones to the east?
Posted by side on September 21, 2011, 2:56 pm, in reply to "Re: South West Monsoon "pushing" cyclones to the east?"
Thanks for your comments. I am very much a layperson here so what I said about the SWM was probably pretty silly. |
The reason I made the comment is that I live close by the sea in Hong Kong. I follow developing cyclones very closely after we were nearly storm surged out during Typhoon Hagupit's passage back in 2008. This year most cyclones seem to have veered north east and only one or two have "made it" into the South China Sea - much fewer than in the past few years. So far this year here in Hong Kong, they've only raised a typhoon warning signal once (to no. 3) and that one was never going to come anywhere near us either. This is in my experience of the last few years rather unusual. Perhaps, as you say, we are due for our quota in the coming months. I note that Super Typhoon Megi came through the South China Sea towards the end of October last year.
: Not really all about the Southwest Monsoon.
: It's more on the steering pattern dominating
: in the Western Pacific for the first half of
: the year. It seems that the high pressure
: area or the STR steering the storms to the
: west was positioned more to the east (near
: the International Dateline) than it was
: usually situated before.
: Also, the troughs appeared to be strong in
: the past few months as the previous troughs
: weakened the STR that blocks a storm away
: from the north, which in turn creates a
: weakness and brings a storm to the
: north/northeast in the general direction of
: Personally, I wouldn't say that this season
: is different. There were times that things
: didn't turn out that way, for example,
: Juaning(Nock-ten) and Mina(Nanmadol). Also I
: have this intuition that the last quarter of
: the year will be critical for those in the
: Philippines and around South China Sea
: because STR is usually at its peak strength
: for the months of September to December,
: thus increasing the threat of intense
: typhoons to make landfall.
: --Previous Message--
: I find this year's tropical cyclone season
: intriguing. The trend, up to now at least,
: seems to be that cyclones move north west
: initially then bend to the north east. Japan
: has been hit several times (including by
: Roke now) as has the north east coast of
: China and Korea whilst several other
: cyclones have taken this track in the seas
: south of Japan. In previous years, many (not
: to say most) cyclones seem to have followed
: a generally north westerly path crossing the
: Philippines into the South China Sea and
: then making land fall in Southern China.
: Any comments on why this year seems to be
: different? Has it anything to do with the
: strong south west monsoon this year?