For this year, there is a high chance that at least 1 typhoon will hit Bicol in my opinion. El Nino is in the offing and forecasts show El Nino peaking around December. I just knew lately that El Nino tends to increase TC activity in the Western Pacific and produce numerous typhoons, some reaching Cat3-and-above status. It may also extend the typhoon season into December.
Moreover, if ECMWF multi-model seasonal forecast for this year verifies, we can see high pressure ridging south of Japan getting stronger in June-August period...meaning higher chance of TC's from the Pacific to track more westward, making the Philippines (especially Bicol region) prone to TC landfalls.
The past 2 years are less bullish typhoon seasons for the Philippines, with the exception of Megi(2010), Pedring(2011), Quiel(2011) and Sendong(2011). The typhoon season this year, I believe, will be an active one and similar to 2006/2009 seasons.
:: Receive Typhoon Updates directly on your mobile phones! To know more...Text T2K HELP to 216 (SMART & TNT), 2800 (GLOBE & TM) & 2288 (SUN).