Message modified by board administrator July 1, 2012, 9:05 pm
It's been a long time since I posted here.
Anyway...I think we are aware of a brewing storm near Yap which is now invest 96W. Many models, especially GFS, develop this into a storm and track across the Philippines.
The GFS runs are consistent for 3 days now about Visayas/Bicol/Southern Luzon track next week. I also just want to add..GFS did a pretty good job at correctly predicting both Guchol's path and intensity first, beating my favorite ECMWF. It also did great on their forecast for Debby in the Atlantic when it hinted a track towards Florida first while the rest showed Texas landfall... These things make me think there is high confidence about the forecast tracks, and could be a bad week for us in the Philippines this week.
I hope people in Samar, Bicol and Southern Luzon regions are ready for this, especially the Manilenyos. I know it may be too early to be cautious about it, but I think this is getting quite serious.
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