Typhoon2000 Discussion Center: Re: Start of Heavy Rains

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Re: Start of Heavy Rains

Posted by Webmaster on May 11, 2005, 1:12 am, in reply to "Start of Heavy Rains"
202.138.185.42

Check this out:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.ppt
The new forecast on the link above is based on NOAA's MJO's Evolution (weekly summary)= wherein the arrival of heavy rains will be likely to be on the Week of May 16 or May 23. But still, the week of May 30 remains strong.
Thanks for your analysis Web_Rain!
--Previous Message--
: : It looks like heavy rains are just around
: the corner. The vapor conditions west of
: the Philippines and the sea conditions east
: are all ripe for the generation of heavy
: rains.
:
: Accordingly, the estimate for this to start
: to happen is around the week of May 30,
: 2005. This is an estimate of the start of
: intense activity leading to heavy rains. On
: purpose, it is not intended to forecast the
: development of typhoons, their strengths, or
: their paths.
:
: As I said in my forecasts for the past three
: years, Metro Manila is a disaster area at 20
: mm of continuous rain in a period of one
: hour.
:
: It would be a good idea to check that
: drainage activities are properly managed so
: that they do not contribute to the
: obstruction of the waterways. At the same
: time, storage areas for harvests could be
: arranged for safety.
:
: As in the past, I will provide quantified
: charts for post-factum review.
:
: web_rain
:
:
:

Message Thread:

Start of Heavy Rains - web_rain May 10, 2005, 10:46 am
- Re: Start of Heavy Rains - Webmaster May 11, 2005, 1:12 am
  - Re: Start of Heavy Rains - web_rain May 12, 2005, 1:56 pm
    - Re: Start of Heavy Rains - Webmaster May 12, 2005, 5:07 pm
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