Typhoon2000 Discussion Center: Re: Start of Heavy Rains

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Re: Start of Heavy Rains

Posted by web_rain on May 12, 2005, 1:56 pm, in reply to "Re: Start of Heavy Rains"
210.23.190.249

From your time-stamp, you do not seem to be sleeping early. Anyway, thanks for the link. I drew up the following observations from the NOAA briefing:
NOAA - Relevant Points in Briefing
"Week 1 - Increased likelihood of above average rainfall across the eastern Indian Ocean, Indonesia, and the far western Pacific"
"Week 2 - (a) Increased likelihood of above average rainfall across eastern Indonesia and the western Pacific; (b) Elevated risk of tropical cyclones in the western Pacific Ocean"
"Summary - . . ., there exists an elevated risk of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal (week 1) and the western Pacific Ocean (week 2)."
NOAA - End
Drawing a rain-biased conclusion from this presentation, it could be said that:
1) The Week 1 scenario would start to accelerate the inflow of moist air into the south china sea.
2) The Week 2 scenario would simply funnel that air into the western portions of the Philippines.
3) The Week 3 scenario, which is not included in the NOAA briefing, is that this moist air that has traveled our way would accelerate the saturation process as it is drawn closer to the low pressure areas under the influence of the typhoons that would continue on beyond the briefing's Week 2 scenario.
Week 3 is where we might experience another series of disasters as a direct result of heavy rains alone. This does not include the fact that strong winds also cause disasters in another form.
I hope the Week 3 scenario is dampened in some way, but if it comes, we should be prepared. After all the "Climate Prediction Center / NCEP" of the United States' NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION is as authoritative as any organization can hope to become.
--Previous Message--
: Check this out:
: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.ppt
:
: The new forecast on the link above is based
: on NOAA's MJO's Evolution (weekly summary)=
: wherein the arrival of heavy rains will be
: likely to be on the Week of May 16 or May
: 23. But still, the week of May 30 remains
: strong.
:
: Thanks for your analysis Web_Rain!
:
: --Previous Message--
: : It looks like heavy rains are just around
: the corner. The vapor conditions west of
: the Philippines and the sea conditions east
: are all ripe for the generation of heavy
: rains.
:
: Accordingly, the estimate for this to start
: to happen is around the week of May 30,
: 2005. This is an estimate of the start of
: intense activity leading to heavy rains. On
: purpose, it is not intended to forecast the
: development of typhoons, their strengths, or
: their paths.
:
: As I said in my forecasts for the past three
: years, Metro Manila is a disaster area at 20
: mm of continuous rain in a period of one
: hour.
:
: It would be a good idea to check that
: drainage activities are properly managed so
: that they do not contribute to the
: obstruction of the waterways. At the same
: time, storage areas for harvests could be
: arranged for safety.
:
: As in the past, I will provide quantified
: charts for post-factum review.
:
: web_rain
:
:
:
:
:
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Message Thread:

Start of Heavy Rains - web_rain May 10, 2005, 10:46 am
- Re: Start of Heavy Rains - Webmaster May 11, 2005, 1:12 am
  - Re: Start of Heavy Rains - web_rain May 12, 2005, 1:56 pm
    - Re: Start of Heavy Rains - Webmaster May 12, 2005, 5:07 pm
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