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Posted by Webmaster on May 12, 2005, 5:07 pm, in reply to "Re: Start of Heavy Rains" Cheers!
202.138.187.86
You're right. I'm always awake.. 
Anyway, it's just I'm still awake during that time.
--Previous Message--
: : From your time-stamp, you do not seem to be
: sleeping early. Anyway, thanks for the
: link. I drew up the following observations
: from the NOAA briefing:
: NOAA - Relevant Points in Briefing
: "Week 1 - Increased likelihood of above
: average rainfall across the eastern Indian
: Ocean, Indonesia, and the far western
: Pacific"
:
: "Week 2 - (a) Increased likelihood of
: above average rainfall across eastern
: Indonesia and the western Pacific; (b)
: Elevated risk of tropical cyclones in the
: western Pacific Ocean"
:
: "Summary - . . ., there exists an
: elevated risk of tropical cyclones in the
: Bay of Bengal (week 1) and the western
: Pacific Ocean (week 2)."
: NOAA - End
:
: Drawing a rain-biased conclusion from this
: presentation, it could be said that:
: 1) The Week 1 scenario would start to
: accelerate the inflow of moist air into the
: south china sea.
:
: 2) The Week 2 scenario would simply funnel
: that air into the western portions of the
: Philippines.
:
: 3) The Week 3 scenario, which is not
: included in the NOAA briefing, is that this
: moist air that has traveled our way would
: accelerate the saturation process as it is
: drawn closer to the low pressure areas under
: the influence of the typhoons that would
: continue on beyond the briefing's Week 2
: scenario.
:
: Week 3 is where we might experience another
: series of disasters as a direct result of
: heavy rains alone. This does not include
: the fact that strong winds also cause
: disasters in another form.
:
: I hope the Week 3 scenario is dampened in
: some way, but if it comes, we should be
: prepared. After all the "Climate
: Prediction Center / NCEP" of the United
: States' NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
: ADMINISTRATION is as authoritative as any
: organization can hope to become.
:
:
:
: --Previous Message--
: Check this out:
:
: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.ppt
:
: The new forecast on the link above is based
: on NOAA's MJO's Evolution (weekly summary)=
: wherein the arrival of heavy rains will be
: likely to be on the Week of May 16 or May
: 23. But still, the week of May 30 remains
: strong.
:
: Thanks for your analysis Web_Rain!
:
: --Previous Message--
: : It looks like heavy rains are just around
: the corner. The vapor conditions west of
: the Philippines and the sea conditions east
: are all ripe for the generation of heavy
: rains.
:
: Accordingly, the estimate for this to start
: to happen is around the week of May 30,
: 2005. This is an estimate of the start of
: intense activity leading to heavy rains. On
: purpose, it is not intended to forecast the
: development of typhoons, their strengths, or
: their paths.
:
: As I said in my forecasts for the past three
: years, Metro Manila is a disaster area at 20
: mm of continuous rain in a period of one
: hour.
:
: It would be a good idea to check that
: drainage activities are properly managed so
: that they do not contribute to the
: obstruction of the waterways. At the same
: time, storage areas for harvests could be
: arranged for safety.
:
: As in the past, I will provide quantified
: charts for post-factum review.
:
: web_rain
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