Typhoon2000 Discussion Center: Rapid Formation of Twin TCs

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Rapid Formation of Twin TCs

Posted by Eyestorm on August 20, 2005, 5:29 pm
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I've mentioned on Raffy's topic that: we must take extra-precaution that even without MJO, the possibility of formation during peak months of the typhoon season remains strong.
Oh well, after 3-days, here we go again: TS MAWAR (11W) and TD 12W formed simultaneously close to each other and we are going to witness the classic interaction known as "Fujiwhara Effect" aka. "Dumb Bell" Effect - the interaction of 2 or more TCs within 1,000 km. of each other or captured within the same isobaric pressure of 1006 mb.
Factors like low shear and warm sst are likely to have contributed on the development of these systems.
Furthermore, for the coming days, a formation of another system is highly possible as forecast models now shows it moving into the Philippine Sea between Aug 25 to 30. That system is currently a newly formed LPA near 4N 145E.
So, my 1st week of September forecast has come along earlier than expected. Oh well, all I can say that: "Nature is really unpredictable."

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Rapid Formation of Twin TCs - Eyestorm August 20, 2005, 5:29 pm
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--Previous Message-- : I've mentioned on Raffy's topic that: we must : take extra-precaution that even without MJO, : the possibility of formation during peak : months of the typhoon season remains strong. : : Oh well, after 3-days, here we go again: TS : MAWAR (11W) and TD 12W formed simultaneously : close to each other and we are going to : witness the classic interaction known as : "Fujiwhara Effect" aka. "Dumb : Bell" Effect - the interaction of 2 or : more TCs within 1,000 km. of each other or : captured within the same isobaric pressure : of 1006 mb. : : Factors like low shear and warm sst are : likely to have contributed on the : development of these systems. : : Furthermore, for the coming days, a : formation of another system is highly : possible as forecast models now shows it : moving into the Philippine Sea between Aug : 25 to 30. That system is currently a newly : formed LPA near 4N 145E. : : So, my 1st week of September forecast has : come along earlier than expected. Oh well, : all I can say that: "Nature is really : unpredictable." : : : : :

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