The breakup flooding potential is above average across parts of mainland Alaska. In the Interior, the primary areas of concern are the upper Yukon and lower Tanana Rivers, along with the middle Kuskokwim River near Crooked Creek and Aniak/Kalskag. Portions of the middle and lower Yukon and lower Kuskokwim also face an elevated risk. This increased threat is driven by a combination of above-average snowpack, average to above-average ice thickness, high freeze-up levels, rough ice or freeze-up ice jams reported in several Interior locations, and the potential for delayed snowmelt from below-average April temperatures.

The latest temperature outlooks favor predominantly below-normal conditions across much of Alaska through the remainder of April. The greatest likelihood of below-normal temperatures is over the southern mainland, including the Kuskokwim and Lower Yukon Basins.

Along the lower Yukon River, Grayling and Anvik have a low flood risk. Grayling’s forecast break-up date is May 13th to 19th; Anvik’s is May 15th to 21st. Holy Cross’ flood risk is low to moderate, with a forecast break-up date of May 14th to 20th. Along the Kuskokwim, Nikolai’s flood risk is low; the forecast break-up date is April 23rd to April 29th. McGrath’s flood risk is low to moderate, with a forecast break-up date of May 4th to 10th. Sleetmute and Red Devil’s flood risk is low to moderate, and the forecast break-up date is May 2nd to 8th for Sleetmute and May 3rd to 9th for Red Devil. Crooked Creek’s flood potential is moderate to high, with a forecast break-up date of May 4th to 9th.

Read the full report at this link: https://www.weather.gov/media/aprfc/BreakupProducts/ESFAK_ACR_20260417